Early Bird Breakdown Week 11: Packers @ Giants

Continuing the on-going series of early morning Packer game previews, we first take a quick look back at last week’s contest:

 The Good: Jarrett Boykin

As the only Packer to break 100 yards, by default this should go to Boykin, having eight catches on 13 targets for 112 yards. Deeper than the numbers though is that Boykin was a safety blanket and dependable target for third-string-quarterback Scott Tolzien, leading to the two possibly continuing to connect until Rodgers’ return in the coming weeks.

The Bad: The Pass Coverage

If you missed the game and saw that Foles only had 228 yards you may think that they actually did pretty good. But Foles only needed 12 completions to get those yards. Foles had three touchdown passes, one for 55 yards, one for 45 yards, and one for 32 yards. Basically, the Packers looked like the 2011 Packers giving up big plays and showing difficulty covering any receiver the Eagles sent deep. Green Bay continues to be inept at intercepting the ball as well, registering only three interceptions all season and none since the Cleveland game.

The Ugly: Consecutive Home Losses

This one obviously has a large size, “12,” asterisk next to it, but all the same since Rodgers went down the Packers have had two very winnable games at home that they probably should have won. Instead, the Packers will have to scratch and claw to get into the playoffs and unless they right the ship soon, the season could sink.

How I did:

“31-23 Eagles over Packers -” Both teams failed to score as I predicted but the outcome was the same. It is of note that maybe it goes differently if Seneca Wallace never got hurt since he had all the first team reps or if Tolzien was given some practice reps. But Tolzien looked shaky, especially when he had to throw it more than five yards down field, and the Packers’ defense gave up too many big plays to justify a chance. The real final was 27-13 Philadelphia.

Opponents Recap:

The Giants hosted the Raiders last week in a battle of ineptitude. Oakland, coming off of a performance where they gave up 7 TDs through the air did what most teams have done and made Eli Manning look pedestrian. Both teams barely scrapped up over 200 yards, but the Giants managed to take the lead in the third quarter and hung on to win 24-20.

The Breakdown:

Packers’ Offense vs. Giants’ Defense:

The Giants’ defense has been inconsistent this season, ranking 11 th overall (11 th in rushing and passing). Despite not giving up many yards, they cannot make key stops, leading to the 7 th -worst points defense (27.0 points given up per game). Their weakness is the pass rush they relied on for years has been incredibly ineffective, tied for 30 th in the league with only 14. Tolzien should have time in the pocket to make plays, and the Giants are only tied for 17 th in generating turnovers, so despite being stingy on yards, they are not too difficult to convert on. Eddie Lacy will need to pound the rock again to wear out the defense, though unlike last week, Green Bay is not facing that efficient of an offense…

Packers’ Defense vs. Giants’ Offense:

Despite the air of mystery behind Tolzien this is where the game will be decided. Green Bay is tied fourth-to-last on takeaways, the Giants giveaway the ball more than any other team. Green Bay has the fewest interceptions on defense and the Giants have thrown more than any other team. Which lackluster performance wins out? To be honest, it is a coin flip. Eli Manning will throw some into the chest of Tramon Williams, who will proceed to let the ball hit the ground or bounce to a Giants receiver. Manning has historically been pretty good against the Packers, though mostly in the postseason. However, historically Green Bay usually is at or near the top in interceptions, so this season is throwing convention to the wind. If I had to guess, especially with Clay hopefully having shaken the rust off this week, the Giants are more likely to turn it over than not, even with the way Green Bay’s secondary has played as of late. It will be up to the defense to steal a game to keep Green Bay in contention. It should be noted though that Hayward is out and Perry is doubtful, the former of which would have been key as he has the best hands in the secondary.

The Weather Factor:

At 3:00pm, the weather forecast shows it will be a nice 61 degrees with overhead clouds but only a 10% chance of rain. The optimal conditions should help Tolzien settle into the game.

The Game:

Hopefully, this week we actually get to see what a week of practice does for the Packers’ backup quarterback. Eli Manning will do his best to try and give the Packers a few turnovers, but Green Bay will do their best to make Manning look good. Ultimately, I think the defense finally gets an interception, maybe two. I also feel a little optimistic on Tolzien being efficient enough to win on the road, especially with Lacy churning out over 20 carries. If Green Bay fails to generate a turnover though, I don’t see Green Bay winning. My gut says Eli Manning will turn it over though, and I see the Packers pulling out the crucial win. 23-17 Green Bay.

Fantasy Extra:

Start’em:

Green Bay’s Defense: The Giants are averaging nearly two turnovers a game, even with how shaky the defense has been they are a solid pickup this week.

Jarrett Boykin: Boykin was Tolzien’s guy both short and long last weekend, and expect double-digit targets again today.

Eddie Lacy: Every week a must start, he will be the featured star of the offense until Rodgers returns.

 

Sit’em:

The Giants: This team has been wildly inconsistent with who gets production and in what spots, plus I see the offense on the sidelines this afternoon with Lacy chewing the clock up.

Early Bird Breakdown Week 11: Packers @ Giants

Continuing the on-going series of early morning Packer game previews, we first take a quick look back at last week’s contest:

 The Good: Jarrett Boykin

As the only Packer to break 100 yards, by default this should go to Boykin, having eight catches on 13 targets for 112 yards. Deeper than the numbers though is that Boykin was a safety blanket and dependable target for third-string-quarterback Scott Tolzien, leading to the two possibly continuing to connect until Rodgers’ return in the coming weeks.

The Bad: The Pass Coverage

If you missed the game and saw that Foles only had 228 yards you may think that they actually did pretty good. But Foles only needed 12 completions to get those yards. Foles had three touchdown passes, one for 55 yards, one for 45 yards, and one for 32 yards. Basically, the Packers looked like the 2011 Packers giving up big plays and showing difficulty covering any receiver the Eagles sent deep. Green Bay continues to be inept at intercepting the ball as well, registering only three interceptions all season and none since the Cleveland game.

The Ugly: Consecutive Home Losses

This one obviously has a large size, “12,” asterisk next to it, but all the same since Rodgers went down the Packers have had two very winnable games at home that they probably should have won. Instead, the Packers will have to scratch and claw to get into the playoffs and unless they right the ship soon, the season could sink.

How I did:

“31-23 Eagles over Packers -” Both teams failed to score as I predicted but the outcome was the same. It is of note that maybe it goes differently if Seneca Wallace never got hurt since he had all the first team reps or if Tolzien was given some practice reps. But Tolzien looked shaky, especially when he had to throw it more than five yards down field, and the Packers’ defense gave up too many big plays to justify a chance. The real final was 27-13 Philadelphia.

Opponents Recap:

The Giants hosted the Raiders last week in a battle of ineptitude. Oakland, coming off of a performance where they gave up 7 TDs through the air did what most teams have done and made Eli Manning look pedestrian. Both teams barely scrapped up over 200 yards, but the Giants managed to take the lead in the third quarter and hung on to win 24-20.

The Breakdown:

Packers’ Offense vs. Giants’ Defense:

The Giants’ defense has been inconsistent this season, ranking 11 th overall (11 th in rushing and passing). Despite not giving up many yards, they cannot make key stops, leading to the 7 th -worst points defense (27.0 points given up per game). Their weakness is the pass rush they relied on for years has been incredibly ineffective, tied for 30 th in the league with only 14. Tolzien should have time in the pocket to make plays, and the Giants are only tied for 17 th in generating turnovers, so despite being stingy on yards, they are not too difficult to convert on. Eddie Lacy will need to pound the rock again to wear out the defense, though unlike last week, Green Bay is not facing that efficient of an offense…

Packers’ Defense vs. Giants’ Offense:

Despite the air of mystery behind Tolzien this is where the game will be decided. Green Bay is tied fourth-to-last on takeaways, the Giants giveaway the ball more than any other team. Green Bay has the fewest interceptions on defense and the Giants have thrown more than any other team. Which lackluster performance wins out? To be honest, it is a coin flip. Eli Manning will throw some into the chest of Tramon Williams, who will proceed to let the ball hit the ground or bounce to a Giants receiver. Manning has historically been pretty good against the Packers, though mostly in the postseason. However, historically Green Bay usually is at or near the top in interceptions, so this season is throwing convention to the wind. If I had to guess, especially with Clay hopefully having shaken the rust off this week, the Giants are more likely to turn it over than not, even with the way Green Bay’s secondary has played as of late. It will be up to the defense to steal a game to keep Green Bay in contention.

The Weather Factor:

At 3:00pm, the weather forecast shows it will be a nice 61 degrees with overhead clouds but only a 10% chance of rain. The optimal conditions should help Tolzien settle into the game.

The Game:

Hopefully, this week we actually get to see what a week of practice does for the Packers’ backup quarterback. Eli Manning will do his best to try and give the Packers a few turnovers, but Green Bay will do their best to make Manning look good. Ultimately, I think the defense finally gets an interception, maybe two. I also feel a little optimistic on Tolzien being efficient enough to win on the road, especially with Lacy churning out over 20 carries. If Green Bay fails to generate a turnover though, I don’t see Green Bay winning. My gut says Eli Manning will turn it over though, and I see the Packers pulling out the crucial win. 23-17 Green Bay.

Fantasy Extra:

Start’em:

Green Bay’s Defense: The Giants are averaging nearly two turnovers a game, even with how shaky the defense has been they are a solid pickup this week.

Jarrett Boykin: Boykin was Tolzien’s guy both short and long last weekend, and expect double-digit targets again today.

Eddie Lacy: Every week a must start, he will be the featured star of the offense until Rodgers returns.

 

Sit’em:

The Giants: This team has been wildly inconsistent with who gets production and in what spots, plus I see the offense on the sidelines this afternoon with Lacy chewing the clock up.

 

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