A Realistic Look at Where the Brewers Could End Up Finishing This Season
Before the 2013 season started, the “experts” were projecting that the Brewers would win 76-80 games this year. The uncertainty of the starting rotation had fans doubtful that the Brewers would be able to put together a contending team, and sure enough, the starting pitching has been one of their downfalls this year. However, the offense has been just as frustrating at times. It seems like the Brewers get plenty of hits every night, yet they can’t seem to score runs. They somehow find new ways to strand two runners on base with zero outs every single night. When the lowly Cubs are the only team in the division that your team can beat, you know they’ve got some major problems.
No matter who the Brewers decide to trade, I still think they will end finishing fourth in division. They would probably have to come up with a new kind of terrible to finish below the Cubs, but at at this point, even that probably shouldn’t surprise me. Right now they are dealing with injuries to Braun and Corey Hart. Aramis still isn’t 100% healthy, and has been struggling lately. I think they will end up trading Aramis, and I think they should shop Aoki. He would be under team control until 2018, so they could probably get some good prospects in return for him. There is zero chance that the Brewers trade Segura, and I seriously doubt that Gomez or Lucroy will be going anywhere. With these three key players along with Braun and Corey Hart, assuming he ever comes back, the offense is going to be just fine. The Brewers could also shop Gallardo and Lohse, which would leave them with a starting rotation of Estrada, Peralta and 3 starts from whoever they have spot starting out of the bullpen that day (kidding.…kind of). The Brewers hope to insert Narveson in the rotation when he returns, and he should be ready to come back from his rehab stint within the next couple of weeks. If the Brewers do end up trading Lohse and/or Gallardo, we could probably see Thornburg be called back, with Burgos filling out the 5 spot in the rotation, or we could see them call up one or two of their prospects from the minors.
So, there are really two possibilities for the Brewers this season. If they do trade Lohse and Gallardo, their number one starter becomes Marco Estrada and watching this team will probably make you want to bang your head against the wall…even more than you already want to do. I would put them around 70 wins if they end up trading these two guys. If they keep Lohse and Gallardo, I think the team would win around 75 games. So, realistically, the Brewers are probably going to finish the season with somewhere between 70-75 wins. That also means that they could lose 87-92 games. Neither of these possibilities would allow them to come anywhere close to the postseason, so if a team wanted to offer them some good prospects for Yo and Lohse, they should take them. While this could make the team practically unwatchable from a pitching standpoint this season, it also helps ensure that the Brewers could contend for a postseason spot again in the very near future. They have pitching prospects like Hellweg, Pena, Jungmann and Nelson who could be MLB ready by 2014, and if you couple them with prospects that could be acquired in trades, the Brewers will be ready to compete again sooner than you may think. The only thing I ask for for the rest of the season is that the Brewers just take one series win from the Cardinals. Just one. Then again, this article is about realistic things that the Brewers could do this season, so scratch that. Just keep beating the Cubs.