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Rolling the Dice on Sheets
Rather than spend all my time alternating between whining about my painful post-accident rehab and obsessing about whether I will ever regain normal use of my left arm, I decided to lull myself to sleep last night thinking about the Brewers starting rotation. It looks somewhat thin, to say the least. If they could make it though the season without injury and without under-performance by the five guys presently tagged to be in The Rotation they would probably be in the hunt for the post season in 2009. But what are the chances of that happening? Let me go out on a limb and say: Not Good.
So what is there to do? They could overspend on a marginal talent like Braden Looper, but if they are willing to take a Jeff Suppan-like chance on him, why not consider a risk on bringing back Ben Sheets? I realize that a lot of Brewers fans are finished with Sheets. Many feel that the greatness he displayed in games like his brilliant complete game shut out last September when he subdued Jake Peavy and the Padres 1-0 was negated by the string of odd and not so odd injuries Sheets developed over the duration of his now expired four year deal. Fair enough. So why not take a risk on Sheets that will mitigate the potential downside?
Here’s an idea: A contract with a $5 million base that increases by $1 million after Sheets makes 10 starts, by $2 million after 20 starts and $3 million after 30 starts. That would would allow Sheets to earn $11 million for pitching the entire season, and a full season from Ben Sheets would certainly be worth that amount. Of course, it has been reported that Sheets is looking for a two year deal for somewhere around $16-18 million. So I would suggest an option that kicks in for 2010 when Sheets hits 200 innings in 2009. That option could be for a base of $6 million (putting the two year deal at $17 million, right in Ben’s reported sweet spot) with bonuses similar to what I am proposing for 2009.
At worse, this deal would cost the Brewers $5 million. At best it gives them a top of the rotation starter for two seasons. I think it is a risk worth exploring.
2 Comments
An interesting notion that, on the surface at least, would help solve some of their pitching woes. I’m sure the Brewers aren’t completely comfortable going into the season having to rely on Gallardo and Parra at the top of the rotation. However, my sense of the situation is that Sheets is looking for a change of scenery. Of course, money has been known to change people’s perspectives.
I listened to an interview with Melvin a couple of weeks ago. I put the odds on Sheets to the Brewers at 20%…going up about 1% a day.